I remember when I first started betting on football, it was down my local bookie after school when I turned 18, me and my mates didn’t know what to do in there, we then lumped £1 on 2 accumulators with the odds of 300+/1. We were sure we will win big money and be minted the next day, in reality that never happened. A few years without success punting the pound on big accumulators, I then looked at focusing on picking winners, at the time I would call these MUST WIN BETS, they are often around odds of 1.2-1.3. I would then pick a few and lump a £10 or so on them and hope they come in.
Looking back now, I would laugh at my old-self, which obviously didn’t work, even though a lot of the times you will win, but upsets in the matches will happen, the risk vs reward ratio isn’t worth doing. Bookies will always beat you over the long term because of VALUE, they don’t give a lot of value out as they have very smart people working for them and they play against the sharp sharks everyday. I’ll give you an example of betting with value, if you look at Casinos, they don’t really care if you win 10 hands in a row on Black Jack (unless you are card counting), or hitting the magic number on roulette 5-6 times in a row and got a big win, all the games in the casino gives them an EDGE, mostly 51-53% chance. As a player, we only have around 48% or less chances in the games, so in long term we will always lose in a casino, they don’t care if you have been winning 10 games in a row, they know the variance will sort themselves out long-term and they will be a winner after another 100…1000 games, the law of averages will be in their favour.
Odds are probabilities and if you can master the art of it, you will become successful in sports betting or sports trading and make profit long-term. It’s hard to really say what is the ‘true odds’ of a football match outcome, how would you calculate it? There are so many variant involved and calculating the true price, so what is right and wrong? Well if you look at it this way.. the bookmakers find it hard too and they do get it wrong sometimes, this is where we take advantage of it.