OK for example, we worked out that Arsenal to score over 2.5 goals is 1.92 but a bookmaker is offering odds of 2.10, there’s about 20% value in this bet. Even if the outcome is a losing bet, if you bet with enough value over the long term you will be positive.
Today the first game on the list for Easter Friday is Birmingham vs Rotterham, their last 3 meetings have been one win for Birmingham and two were 2-2 draws. The true odds for the draw should be 1.33 but in reality draw odds are always above 3 and if you betted a draw for all 3 matches you would have one two and lost one but will be in huge profits. Of course its not that easy to calculate value but I am just emphasising my point here and explaining the basics of Value in football betting.
I won’t go in detail how I work out value in this blog entry but I just want to point out to those who wants to profit from football betting to stop betting on accumulators and short odds, bookies loves you, they love it when you make these bets because they know they will always be a winner long term, yes you do land a £300 accumulator time to time but how many £100s have you lost before you hit one?