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Monday 28th May

Derby v WBA

The richest game in the world - 30 million quid on 90 minutes of action if that doesn't focus the players minds then nothing will....WBA rated the clear favourites here by the bookmakers and if we were looking at pure squad quality then this is completely understandable. The likes of Jason Koumas, Kamara, Phillips are Premiership class players and Koumas indeed has the ability to be one of the very best. However the fact that they didn't get automatic promotion underlines some of their inherent problems, for a start some of these players were clearly believing their own hype midseason and rumours have persisted throughout the campaign of contracts arranged elsewhere irrespective of whether WBA succeed tomorrow. The Baggies also have a very poor back line which consistently concedes poor goals - Kiely is ok in goal but Robinson and Sodje are not of the required standard and with almost no protection from their midfield they will always be under pressure. Derby meanwhile have a slightly more solid look but lack any of their opponents flair - their one real star Giles Barnes returned from the dead to come on against Southampton but he looked half fit, limping constantly so there has to be a question mark over whether he will start. Other than that the Rams are hugely reliant on Steve Howard up front. He's a classic centreforward but will always be reliant on service which without Barnes could be vastly reduced. In defence they look almost as poor as WBA, again a decent keeper in Bywater but Darren Moore showed his" true class" against Southampton being at fault for at least one goal.... So the picture isn't really that clear, If WBA play to their full ability they will win through - no doubting that but football is never so straightforward so at these unattractive odds we are happy to steer clear.

Sunday 27th May

Blackpool v Yeovil

Second phase of play off action over the Bank Holiday weekend and this should be an entertaining match up. Yeovil stole the headlines with a fantastic comeback against Forest while Blackpool thoroughly deserved to win through their lancashire scrap with Oldham. Team news for this one sees the likely return of Terry Skiverton in the Yeovil defence - he's a talismatic figure who can only give them a boost, however this may be negated somewhat by the doubts hanging over Chris Cohen who provides a serious attacking threat from midfield. Blackpool have a clean sheet of health. They deserve to be favourites here, they are on an excellent streak of form which has seen 9 wins on the trot. In the likes of Parker and Hoolihan they have a couple of outstanding individuals who will surely shine at a higher level. As mentioned in previous previews Yeovil have been slightly fortunate this season using the likes of Leon Best on loan to propell them into the play offs. A better side than Forest would have put them away comfortably and Blackpool have the class to do this. The odds of 2.01 - 0.25 on Blackpool look attractive although there has been little market action on this game so far. Goals too would not be unexpected but there is the threat of poor weather from tomorrow which is worth bearing in mind for this market.

Saturday 26th May

Bristol Rovers v Shrewsbury

The oddsmakers have made Rovers slight favourites for this one probably based on their impressive semi final performance and the fact that in h2h with Shrewsbury this term they are unbeaten. Early team news sees important misses for both sides. Rovers full back Jacobson's loan period has expired while Shrewsbury's reg gk Scott Shearer is also ineligible for this one. His likely replacement Chris Mackenzie is an experienced lower league player but hasn't started a game since the beginning of April. In terms of individual quality Rovers look superior, the Walker/Lambert partnership upfront looked in fine form with both netting in the semi. Shrewsbury meanwhile tend to rotate their strikeforce Asamoah, Fortune-West, Cooke, Symes all tasted action against MK Dons. and this has been the case all season. This sense of teamwork has helped them in the past overcome teams of superior individuals as proved the case with MK Dons. Therefore we are a bit wary of getting involved in the Asian Handicaps or 1x2, however yet again we are tempted by the goal line. The new Wembley is currently a very big deal for English football and while Chelsea and Man U fought out a boring Cup final, the two lower league match ups at the new stadium have seen a flood of chances and goals. These two are really not much different to the likes of Exeter and Morecambe, few of the players will have experienced such a high profile atmosphere and large pitch. Important to note also that Rovers normally reliable keeper Steve Phillips was shaken up successfully by Lincoln and might be suffering a little in the confidence stakes. Also the games which Mackenzie has played in the Shrews goal have gone 13-7 in favour of over 2.5 goals. So if you want to bet on this one the Over 2.25 line @1.92 looks the best policy.

Sunday 20th May

Exeter v Morecambe

The Play off final for entry into the League, so a huge game for both teams. We saw last week how Stevenage froze for the first half of the Trophy Final at Wembley. Important again to emphasise that the new stadium could intimidate some of these non-league players with very few having experience of such major occasions. Exeter were far more impressive in the semi's than their opponents, confidently coming back from a deficit to dispose of high profile Oxford. Morecambe were fortunate that the York defence had a serious off day as they were being outplayed until the York goalie decided to go AWOL. In the two league fixtures Exeter came out on top with a win at St James's and a draw at Clarence park. However truth be told there was little between the sides on both occasions. So it appears to be difficult to separate them and this is how the books view it. Nevertheless there are some positives which in our view swing it slightly in Exeter's favour. For a start they have a far larger fanbase and should hold a comfortable majority of support at Wembley. Team news also gives them a slight edge - Morecambe definitely miss Drench their reg gk who was stretchered off against York. This means a rookie in goal - Scott Davis, they also have doubts over Thompson an imp mf and Curtis their winger who proved so decisive in the semifinal. Exeter have one doubt over key df Edwards. So perhaps Exeter deserve to be slight favourites but it's also worth looking at the goalline which is set at a suprisingly low 2.25 line @2.04. This seems a bit of value as an early goal will almost certainly guarantee a goalfest. Non-league defences are not the best in these wide open spaces!

Saturday 19th May

Blackpool v Oldham

This League 1 play off is the hors d'oeuvre before the Cup Final. Blackpool lead 2-1 from the first leg and to be honest it should have been much, much more. Their key forward Keigan Parker missed a hattrick of chances which would have put this tie beyond doubt. However this shouldn't hide the fact that there seems to be a clear class difference between these two sides. Blackpool's attacking play was far superior to their Lancashire rivals creating chance after chance while Oldham's only real opportunity was their rather fortuitous penalty. Team news for the game see Blackpool likely to be unchanged while Oldham will miss their regular Gk Pogliacomi and there is a doubt over experienced df Charlton. Blayney will replace Pogliacomi in goal and he did ok when he came on but isn't top quality and has done the rounds of the lower leagues over the past few seasons. If Charlton does miss out the Oldham defence will certainly be looking rather make-shift. Everything looks to be in Blackpool's favour here, they've won 8 games on the trot, they are the highest scorers in the league and they outplayed their opponents in the first leg. Prices have already dropped on the home team who opened at 2.05.

Friday 18th May

MK Dons v Shrewsbury

Quite a bit of doubt concerning which teams will line up and in what type of formation. The key injuries are for Shrewsbury who have a big doubt over captain and imp df Hope and mf Edwards. MK Dons are not without concerns, they probably miss long throw specialist mf Sterling and this is a big blow for them. In their league meeting back in November, MK Dons triumphed 2-0 but the match was fairly even sosomething similar could be on the cards here. Reading between the lines we are a little disconcerted at the mood in the MK Dons camp, manager Martin Allen is demanding more from his players in one breath then saying that he will be shaking up his squad over the summer no matter what the result of tonight. That must sow a seed of doubt in the player’s minds going into an important game like this, whether they will have a contract next season. Chairman Winkelman says the club has a 5 year plan to reach the Championship with designs on the Premiership just to add to the pressure. In this Division historically league positions influence who progresses in the play offs and in this respect MK Dons have the upper hand having just missed out on promotion and finished well clear of the rest in terms of points. They seem worthy favourites at around 1.88 in Asia.

Tuesday 15th May

Derby v Southampton

Second leg of the Championship play off and Derby are in the box seat after an impressive showing in the first leg. They seemed to recapture some of their midseason form which saw them top the table and become favourites for promotion. Billy Davies put it down to the return of senior players like Darren Moore and Matty Oakley. Oakley certainly put on a great performance against his old club but we remain unconvinced by Moore's ability at the back. Southampton didn't play too badly indeed on another day they could have snatched at least a draw hitting the woodwork twice. There really is very little to separate these two sides. Team news is significant - Bale and Jones look likely to miss out for Soton - this is a big blow particularly Bale who is an important creative outlet at full back. Derby have no such worries and could field the same line up although Davies is not adverse to changing things round at home. It all looks set for another exciting game.Without Lundekvarn and now Bale, Southampton's defence looks wide open and as mentioned Moore and Leacock are not impressive either at the back for Derby. Therefore over 2.5 goals look of interest at anything over 2.0. The 1x2 and AH look about right - odds have dropped slightly on Derby and we agree with the Southampton missings things are stacked in the home sides favour here.

Monday 14th May

Shrewsbury v MK Dons

This match could prove to be a lottery, the pitch is notoriously a bad drainer and resides next to a river. The UK for most of Sunday has had periods of heavy rain and if not making the match a doubt will certainly make playing football difficult. Shrewsbury have no injury worries whereas MK Dons will wait on the fitness of reg fw Platt (37 apps, 18 goals). MK Dons missed out agonisingly on promotion and were a massive 13 points in front of Shrewsbury, that alone makes them strong favourites to progress through the play off route. Statistically the 4th place team in this Division has gained promotion 10 from 16 attempts, they have reached the final 13 times from 16. If you couple history and the fact they were so far clear of 5th, MK Dons to win the play offs at 3.00 holds some interest. In respect of the match here, the heavy pitch makes this a non betting proposition.

Sunday 13th May

Man Utd v West Ham

All eyes on Old Trafford as West Ham try to stage a last gasp escape from their troubled season. A point here will ensure safety until at least a high court challenge which is threatened by their fellow strugglers. Irrespective of the Tevez issue, in many ways West Ham deserve to go down, like Charlton they sacked their manager for no good reason panicking at a streak of poor form. They've been very, very fortunate that they've got to todays position and it's just as much to do with their competitors poor form as their own improved level.However anyone who watched the Bolton game will have seen that now they are playing some very fine football. Tevez so ironically is on fire and the likes of Noble, Boa Morte and Reo Coker have raised their games too. The odds here have been warped by Man U's recent team changes which saw a group of reserves take the field against Chelsea. We expect a stronger team here although with some key players e.g Ronaldo still likely to miss out. Ferguson has stated his intention to take this one seriously, so if the prices of around 1.8 are still present at kick off and you can see the confirmed team sheet then this would be worth a bet.

Sheff Utd v Wigan

Ignore the silly conspiracy theories travelling the cyberways, Sheff United will be trying their hardest to put their relegation rivals away. A lot seems in their favour too, they've a solid home record and are playing at a higher level than their lancashire opponents. The momentum seems against Wigan and the statements by manager Paul Jewell already hint that he expects his team to go down. Slight doubts over two important df's Baines and De Zeeuw don't help Wigan's cause while Sheff U have only one doubt over the replaceable Montgomery. Neil Warnock has rejected the latest contract offer from the club, maybe he is waiting for their confirmed survival. The market has dropped a little on Sheff U over the weekend and we can't argue with that.

Saturday 12th May

Southampton v Derby

First of the Championship Play off finals and an interesting match up. Derby held the upper hand in the league this season with a win at St Mary's and a draw at Pride Park. However they go into the play offs in mediocre form, the last round win against woeful Leeds doesn't hide the fact that they blew their automatic promotion place. It's unclear whether Davies knows his optimum attacking line up as apart from the everpresent Howard he has rotated Currie, Fagan, Macken, Lupoli, Teale regularly over the last couple of months. This has meant a lack of regular goals only 12 scored in the last 10 games. The defence has remained solid but we are a bit sceptical of the stats, whenever we've viewed Derby recently Leacock, Mceveley and Moore have all looked suspect to quality attacking. Southampton are in contrasting form they rode into the playoffs on the back of 5 wins and 2 losses in the last 7 and this can often be an important factor in the competition. The team in form often makes it through in this high pressure situation. However let's not go overboard, Southampton have been inconsistent all season and they were highly fancied to finish 1 or 2 pre-season and the fact that they only scraped 6th hints at some of their problems. They too have struggled with an attacking combination but fortunately for them they have hit upon an unlikely double act at just the right time, both Best and Jones have hit goalscoring form in the last few games, both are young and will be full of confidence. Good news also that in reserve the freescoring Saganowski is back to fitness. So onto the team news - key miss for Derby is Barnes their main creative force, also doubts in defence where it seems Moore and Johnson are fit again but will they be thrown straight back in? Southampton miss key df Lundekvarn and have other doubts over mf Wright and fringe df Powell. There has been a slight fall in the odds on Southampton for this game but the AH -0.25 1.9 is around borderline value. Our gut feeling is that Southampton will progress over 2 legs so 3.75 at Corals for promotion also looks attractive.

Stevenage v Kidderminster

This will be the biggest non-league game in history and that's the most important factor to bear in mind about this game. Apart from Guppy and Kenna (1 from each side) none of these players will have experienced playing before this size of crowd or at this type of venue before. For example Creighton Kidderminsters imp centreback was last year fixing Sky dishes onto houses while tomorrow he will be playing in front of 60,000+ fans. So very big chance that some players will FREEZE. However let's take the bare facts and judging over the course of the season Stevenage deserve to be favourites they finished 7pts ahead of their opponents and were in with a play off chance right up to the end. Their squad is also far bigger with different options in most areas of play and in manager Mark Stimson they have a coach who has won this trophy for the last 2 years (with Grays) so some important positives for Stevenage. Both sides are in indifferent form, Stevenage perhaps performing slightly better in the last few games but Yates the Kidderminster manager admitted that he deliberately eased off in training during the last couple of rounds of the season. The idea being that his players would be fully fit for this key match. We're not sure that was the brightest idea as it can sometimes be difficult to switch back on again and the key attacking partnership of Christie and Constable seems to have stuttered to a halt. Team news is pretty much full strength for both teams bar the suspended Harkness (kidd df) who is replaceable. The odds look about right on the 1x2 and AH and as we backed Stevenage (see forum) at 11.0 back in January we're not tempted to get further involved. The total goals line though does look more of interest, the over 2.5 line has been set at 2.16 and although the record in Trophy finals is very underish (7/10 recent finals) Stevenage are a very attacking side, Kidderminster are more underish but this is a big, big game. Both league matches went to 3 goals, so this looks worth a small bet or something to consider if backing in-running.

Friday 11th May

Yeovil v Nottm Forest

This one has the real feel of a cuptie about it, Forest were hot pre-season favourites while Yeovil were tipped in some quarters to go down. Yeovil negotiated the loans market with aplomb and this is the main reason for their unexpectedly successful season. Tonight they miss captain and key df Skiverton (39 apps, 2 goals) however they were afforded the luxury of resting some important players last weekend as their play off place was guaranteed. Forest will be missing both first choice starting striker, Agogo (20 apps, 7 goals) and Tyson (12 apps, 7 goals) and also mf Clingan (25 apps). They are considering playing fw Weir-Daley who is pacey but weak in our opinion, he has spent most of the season out on loan. Reg df Morgan (31 apps) returns and that is a boost. Both league fixtures went under and it is expected that this will be another tight affair. Forest away from home play a containing game 16 from 23 under, Yeovil at home similarly are 19 from 23 under. So Under 2.5 is a logical choice at around 1.70.

Tuesday 8th May

Oxford v Exeter

Second leg of this play off final and the winner goes through to face Morecambe at Wembley. We were pretty confident about Exeter's chances before the first leg but the playoff nerves clearly struck and they were largely outplayed in the 1st leg. Oxford's high energy direct tactics worked a treat and the home side just couldn't cope with the assualt. However it is worth noting that despite dominating the first tie Oxford's only goal came from a rather freakish own goal by Exeter's Andy Taylor. They missed several good oportunities to score and this has been an issue all season with only 13 Oxford goals in their last 13 home games (4 of those in one match). Unfortunately Exeter's away form is nothing like as good as their home form and they have performed particularly poorly against the better sides in the division. Team news for this one confirms Oxford unchanged while Exeter have a big doubt over imp def Edwards who limped off in the first leg. It seems likely they will also make other changes with mf Challinor more likely to feature. They did prove marginally more effective when he came on for the 2nd half in the first leg. Odds seem pretty accurate at the moment, Oxford are deserved favourites to go through.

Monday 7th May

Charlton v Tottenham

They HAVE TO WIN yet the market still doesn't fancy Charlton tonight. Of course Spurs are the better team and deserve to be favourites here and they too also need the win to get a Uefa spot but still hard to get our heads around these moves. Charlton have proved a solid home team despite their generally dismal season and have nailed 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 homes while this Spurs team has failed to win at other relegation contenders - Sheff U, Watford and Wigan. Team news is mixed - doubts over Robbie Keane for Spurs and fullback Lee misses out, Charlton have their reg full back Thatcher suspended. Just can't have Spurs such heavy favourites here so a small bet on Charlton with the Asian Handicap in hand (0.25 2.0+ or +0.5 1.8) seems the way to go.

Sunday 6th May

West Brom v Barnsley

Important game for WBA as they need a win to guarantee their play off spot and also home advantage in the 2nd leg. Important team news for this one on both sides, WBA miss key striker Kamara through suspension while Barnsley miss both centrebacks Kay and Reid. This means Ellington likely to return for WBA while Barnsley's defence will look very makeshift. Hassell can come back from suspension but that still leaves one other spot to fill, probably with a junior. Add to that that Austin and Heckinbottom haven't been in the greatest of form either than the away teams back line looks very vulnerable. Ellington is a decent enough replacement for Kamara so everything looks in West Brom's favour here. Worth noting also that immediately after Barnsley guaranteeing their own safety their manager Davey relaxed the alcohol ban on the club. So no surprise if the Yorkshire teams players aren't at peak level for this one. So what can stop WBA - well only themselves really....they constantly have shot themselves in the foot at home recently and with all the pressure on them and none on Barnsley then we wouldn't be totally confident about taking on the large handicap installed in Asia. Over 2.5 goals around 1.8 looks a more appealing option bearing in mind the defensive misses here.

Saturday 5th May

Fulham v Liverpool

Sheff United's Neil Warnock has already expressed his concern that Liverpool will ease off in their last two Premiership games as they focus on the alluring lights of Athens. Already there are rumours out that Liverpool will field several juniors for this game - resting the likes of Reina, Gerrard etc...Now it's fair to be pretty sceptical about such news until you see the actual team sheets but don't be surprised to see some heavy market action on this one. Liverpool did rest 6-7 regs last round but that scenario is different bearing in mind the CL fixture was directly following as opposed to a good 2 weeks away which is the case now. Team news for Fulham is more clear, full back Rosenior has recovered from illness while the rest of the side should remain the same apart from perhaps Montella coming in up front. A Fulham win will all but guarantee their safety but in truth they don't deserve it - the installation of Sanchez was an absolute joke and has proved summarily unsuccessful with the side yet to record a win under his tenure. This is one to keep an eye on as the market could overreact to the Liverpool rumours.

Man City v Man Utd

Some might argue that City have a 2 game season - the two matches against United. Let's face it the rest of their games have been the usual mediocre fare. Rumours abound that Pearce is on his way out to be replaced by Allardyce and the club is in the midst of takeover talks. Meanwhile on the training pitch, Barton has taken up boxing and is unlikely to feature again in City colours. This takes their key player out of the equation and it's hard to find anyone else in the City lineup who has the spirit or class to cause United problems. Yes this is a local derby and yes Man U will have been sickened by being outclassed at the San Siro but what better way to expel some of that bile by beating up your nearest neighbours. It won't be a surprise to see United rest a few but they have the likes of Ferdinand, Evra and Saha to come in and refresh those tired legs. Head to Head clearly favours City but this years team is so much weaker. Despite the chance of a Champions League hangover it's hard not to favour United here and by a couple.

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