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Monday 30th April

Reading v Newcastle

This game has taken on a bit more interest for the neutral as reports coming out of St James Park suggest that Michael Owen will make his long awaited reappearance tonight in a newcastle shirt. Now we're not big fans of Owen as his career tailed off significantly after his first injury but no doubting that he is still a quality forward at Premeiership level. It would be nevertheless be a real surprise if he could have any major impact on a game after such a long lay off. So ignore the hype and look at the more important facts - Newcastle have been a major disappointment all season and away from home their record is poor with 11 losses already on the road. Reading meanwhile have been solid at home and chasing a European spot will have sufficient motivation for this one despite their managers misgivings about a Euro campaign. Team news apart from Owen sees, Lita still suspended for Reading while imp mf Parker is very doubtful for Newcastle. Key gk Given is out and Key fw Martins's form seems to have dipped recently. The odds have fallen slightly on Reading but there is still a smidgin of value there for the home win as the big name of Newcastle still seems to dazzle some punters.

Saturday 28th April

Wigan v West Ham

This match has been given some extra spice after today's decision by the FA to fine West Ham £5 million over irregularities concerning the Mascherano and Tevez transfers. Wigan's chairman Dave Whelan has been a vocal critic over the sloth of football's governing body in finally making up their mind on this matter and it's unlikely that he will be too impressed with their findings.. Unsurprisingly Whelan had been calling for a points penalty for West Ham. So unlikely to be much love lost between the two clubs in what promised to be a feisty encounter anyway. It seems likely now that Tevez will be ruled ineligible and this is a big blow to the Hammers as he had been one of their best attacking threats recently. It's hard to separate these two really, West Ham seem in better form with 4 wins from their last 6 but their away record is still atrocious. We've hinted at the fact that this team clearly lacks fight and this is more apparent on the road. The odds unfortunately aren't as nice as Sheff U previously but the market is swinging towards the Londoners, so a bet on Wigan could be imminent. There should be goals in this one also.

Southend v Luton

Two teams which have really blown it recently. Luton just seemed to give up and now their relegation has been confirmed while Southend after mounting a good run of form in March have capitulated badly when it counted most, the last home game v Barnsley being a particularly poor effort. They have doubts for this one over over two key players Gower and Eastwood their two main scorers. Eastwood in particular is key as his likely replacements Harrold or Bradbury really aren't up to much. Luton meanwhile continue to be blighted by injuries, this week Robinson, Foley and Perrett are added to the list. Judging from the side they put out against Derby they really are lightweight. They dominated possession for large periods of that game but never looked in any danger of scoring. The combination of Talbot and Andrew upfront offers little cutting edge at all indeed the Liverpool trainee Indrizaj looked potentially more threatening when he came on. This is a game Southend have to win, nothing else will do. The odds are not value on them particularly bearing in mind the team news, so it might be better value to investigate the Under 2.5 goal option if Gower and Eastwood do miss out.

Monday 23rd April

Burnley v West Brom

WBA can no longer get automatic promotion so this fixture is merely a chance to cement a play off spot which is beginning to look a bit less than the formality it was a few weeks ago. The last fixture against Sheff Wed saw a sorry 1-0 defeat despite plenty of possession and even worse they had 2 players sent off. This means Clement and Carter are absent for this one which means problems in defence where Davies is already out for the season. Looks like Sodje is also struggling with injury so maybe Albrechtson will move across to centreback and inexperienced Hodgkiss will come in at full back. Not ideal for a side which always leaks a few anyway. Burnley have nothing to play for but pride so this is another one of those classic motivated v unmotivated side match ups which always result in distorted odds. Despite WBA on their day being a very classy side, we've noticed a distinct lack of spirit amongst their players recently - seems some players think they are too good for this league and this perhaps is the reason why the mecurial Koumas has been benched recently. It's impossible to find any value on the away side here, Burnley are a tough nut to crack at Turf Moor and with good form and no pressure will prove a solid obstacle for the Baggies play off hopes.

Sunday 22nd April

Norwich v Ipswich

Aaar! The battle of East Anglia and although Colchester have usurped both these sides this season this is still the fixture which gets the pulses racing round these parts. The home side have a catalogue of injuries which we highlighted in the forum on Wednesday. Since then local press reports suggest that at least Dublin is likely to make it in the centre of defence, as for the other injuries which cover 7-8 1st teamers there is little clarity. We still expect some to play but it seems likely that Norwich could be forced to field the 4 teenagers who finished the game against Burnley. The key player as we highlighted on Wednesday is Darren Huckerby if he misses out this is a big negative for the home team. An attacking winger he is integral to the team creating chances and scoring goals. Ipswich don't escape completely from the injury hoodoo either with key df De Vos definitely out and doubts over mf Garvan and reg gk Price. However with the current state of affairs and with Ipswich in better form and having already outplayed their rivals once this season, it looks sensible to oppose Norwich here. More cautious punters are advised to wait on the team sheets to see if Huckerby really is out or not.

Saturday 21st April

Charlton v Sheff Utd

Key game in the Premiership relegation battle and with only 5 games remaining it's pretty important that Charlton get something from this one. Team news isn't ideal for either team with doubts over key fw Darren Bent for Charlton and of course United's main scorer Rob Hulse is out for the season. As we mentioned last week Sheff United are willing workhorses but lack overall quality this tends to get exposed more away from home where their record reads an unimpressive W3 D1 L14. Charlton are solid at home and against the lower ranked sides have an impressive 7 2 0 record. This is a massive chance for them to boost their survival chances and significantly (unlike the Hammers), team spirit is good under Pardew. They are in a nice run of form and were pretty unlikely not to get something from their last outing against Everton. We expect the Charlton injury doubts to play, Pardew has already confirmed in interviews that they have a 90% chance so backing the home side at anything around 2.1 seems a bit of value although we wouldn't go too much below that.

Southampton v Leeds

Well this looked a solid home win at nice value until the news came out today that Saganowski will miss this match due to injury. The in form Pole has been the source of the bulk of Southampton's goals and he will inevitably be missed as his most likely replacement Raziak has been lacking in confidence recently. Also doubtful for the Saints are key defenders Lundekvarn and Bale, while a couple of other players have niggles. Leeds don't escape the injuries either with a doubt over Thompson and captain Douglas still out suspended. Southampton's manager Burley has come under fire from some quarters mostly due to the Saint's incredible inconsistency, a 6-0 thrashing of Wolves was preceded by an abject home loss to Colchester. However here they face opponents who have lost 9 out of the last 12 on the road. Leed's defence simply just can't handle the pressure away from hom.They have managed to hold on to only one clean sheet all season. Despite the injury scares for the home side they have a pretty deep squad and have to be the selection here.

Tuesday 17th April

Burnley v Norwich

Not much at stake for either side here although we suppose it could be argued that Burnley still need a win to be certain of avoiding relegation. Team news is quite important as Norwich have a raft of injuries which has already been well reported. Let's just go over the list - Doubts over Doherty, Shackell, Drury, Safri, Lappin, Brown, Fotheringham, yes it's quite extensive and effectively means that Norwich will have to field some youngsters particularly in defensive areas. Eagle came on last time out and Spillane played also so they seem the most likely to continue. For Burnley, mf Mcveigh will be ineligible as he is on loan from Norwich. This is quite an important miss as he had galvanised the Burnley team as mentioned last time out. Both teams are not in the most consistent of form, Norwich winning and losing on a regular basis and Burnley turning in a very poor effort last time out at Leeds. Despite the market inevitably siding with the home side as Norwich's injuries become more widely known, we wouldn't recommend getting too heavily involved in this one as Norwich still maintain a healthy attacking threat. Interesting to see Earnshaw come off the bench after his long lay off, the leading scorer duly obliging with a penalty, then there's the mecurial Huckerby and the new kid on the block - Chris Martin who has been making waves around Carrow Rd. The over 2.5 goalline has been set particularly high for this match based on the underish nature of the home side. However with Norwich likely to be fielding a patched up defence and with Burnley likely to put in an improved effort, goals could be on the menu tonight.

Stevenage v Rushden

Must win game for play off chasers Stevenage as games begin to run out for them. They have a pretty solid record at home to teams such as Rushden and it helps that their visitors seem to be going through a period of transition. Rushden are on a run of 3 defeats and there are understandable grumblings from the fan base as new manager Hill doesn't seem to be able to get the results of the previous incumbent, Graham Westley who was mysteriously sacked despite being unbeaten in his short tenure at Nene Park. Team news for this one sees doubts over fringe players Batt and Slabber for Stevenage while Rushden are likely to miss imp mf Woodhouse and also possibly reg mf Mills. One positive for them is the return of Hatswell in defence which should help a rearguard which has conceded 11 times in the last 6 matches. Stevenage appear to be struggling to find an appropriate partner for their main attacker Steve Morison with defender Luke Oliver being played up front with him last time out which must be chastening for the reserve forwards Hakim and Nurse who have been kicking their heels on the bench recently. Stevenage stand a good chance here although the odds don't seem any value at a bookie average of around 1.7. Worth noting that Betfair was trading at a much more viable 1.95.

Saturday 14th April

Sheff Utd v West Ham

Battle in the basement and the stakes are high, the loser is almost certain to have been dealt a fatal blow in their attempts to avoid relegation. A real contrast in styles here, we think fair to say that most punters were expecting Sheff to be in this position as their squad list lacks any sort of quality but through sheer spirit and hard work they have held their own for much of the season. West Ham meanwhile have splashed plenty of cash and bought some big name players who have spectacularly misfired. The famed passing game from the Boleyn has disintegrated into petty in fighting, card schools and baby bentleys. So who would you back in this situation? Work horses or style players who seem to lack mental strength....well the value lies with the home team for sure despite the contrasting form lines. West Ham may have won 3 on the trot but they were battered by Arsenal and Green can't be superman every day, Sheff U's poor run has coincided with some tough fixtures and should not be heeded too much although of course confidence dips with any sort of loss. Their record at Bramall lane against the weaker teams is very solid and the Hammers away record is still shocking (7 goals all season). Early team news suggests striking problems for Sheff with doubts over Nade and Webber and of course Hulse out for the season. West Ham's Zamora is carrying an injury.

Leeds v Burnley

Leeds are another one of those teams who some punters seem to think have a divine right to avoid relegation. However we remain convinced that the Yorkshire team are going down. The loss last week against Colchester was a body blow and now they face this crucial clash against a team which has suddenly hit form. Burnley's tragic run was well documented but since their win against Plymouth they have followed up with impressive results against Birmingham and Cardiff. The Brum result was slightly fortunate - a classic smash and grab but it illustrates the folly of assuming that just because a team needs to win they automatically will. The signing of Paul McVeigh on loan seems to have boosted Burnley allowing them to drop the out of form Akinbiyi and the Norwich man has obliged with 2 goals already. Leeds have some important misses for this game with Douglas suspended leaving a big gap in the midfield engine room. They also have problems in defence - Heath is woefully out of form and there is some chance he will be replaced but with injuries and the continuing absence of wantaway Nicholls there is not so much scope for Wise to manouver. Leeds are strong at home, their partisan crowd is a big plus but the pressure is really tight now and all things considered we would steer clear of them in this fixture.

Luton v Plymouth

We've highlighted Luton's problems already recently and things haven't got any better this week. Their Chairman has resigned and the club is being investigated for 3 illegal payments to players. Rumours suggest that touring car champ Pinkney is likely to come in as the new chairman although this isn't confirmed yet. This will be a boost for the club but is almost certainly too late for them this season. Luton are down, they simply don't have the squad now to perform the necessary miracles. We were shocked to see them offload Feeney to Cardiff - they now have next to no strikers - Talbot, Andrew, Boyd are all pretty much unproven at this level, although Talbot has performed ok recently. Now to add to that Brkovic and Morgan two of their attacking midfielders have pulled up injured and imp df Barnett is also out. This means this tiny squad is becoming even smaller, reg df Foley being forced to delay an operation so he can still be available for selection. Plymouth have no such troubles and nothing much to play for - that is the only thing in Luton's favour here and despite this it will be no surprise if the Devon club perform the last rites on Luton's sorry season this weekend.

Gravesend v Southport

Interesting match this one. Seems straightforward on first inspection, a play off challenger versus a relegation threatened side. However Southport have suddenly woken from the dead with a string of fine performances recently culminating in the Bank Holiday win against Gravesend's play off rivals, Burton. The cheshire side play a nice passing game with Duffy, Baker and Boyd forming a quality trio in mf who will surely stay in the Conference or above even if Southport go down. Gravesend meanwhile are a more physical side particularly now with an injury to key scorer Macdonald meaning that Sodje (one of football family clan) has come into side.This contrast in styles should mean plenty of goalmouth action and the price for the Over which opened in Asia (1.98 0ver 2.25) was gone within the blink of the eye.

Tuesday 10th April

York v Rushden

Play off challenger at home to a team with nothing to play for. However things aren't as simple as this, York are one of the best teams in the Conference yet their home record is very poor. A look at their last 10 home matches sees a meagre 3 wins and dropped points against the likes of now relegated St Albans. For this match up they have problems in defence, Kovacs has returned to Chesterfield, Craddock is out for the season while Lloyd and Peat struggle with injuries. That's almost their entire regular back 4 out - only Mcgurk remains. So either Dudgeon will come in for this one or Mcewan will retain the rookies Purkiss and Parslow in the team. Rushden meanwhile are in transition. After the bizarre sacking of the previous manager Westley who was undefeated, they have stumbled recently with several performances including last time out against Southport. There are grumblings among the fans about the new manager Hill and all does not seem well at Nene Park. Normally you would say comfortable home win here particularly with the likely absence of Hatswell in the Rushden defence but the poor York home form and their unsettled defence are factors which should be borne in mind before betting.

Sunday 6th April

Luton v Southampton

Big game with both sides fighting for points. Southampton pulled off a spectacular result last time out thumping Wolves 6-0 despite missing 8 first teamers. Luton not so impressive with a 0-0 bore draw in the first game under new manager Blackwell. Team news sees most of Southampton's wallking wounded return for this fixture and surely the likes of Bale will come back in despite the previous good performance. Luton however miss important defender Barnett and have lost the services of Carlisle and Runstrom who have returned to their parent clubs from loans. This leaves Luton quite short up front with only Talbot as a recognised Championship quality forward. This club really has fallen on hard times this season with a lot of internal acrimony. We don't treally rate the appointment of Blackwell - you couldn't really get a more contrasting style to the previous incumbent Newell - and it's a very dangerous stage of the season to change your manager. Southampton are deserved favourites here. It will be interesting to see if they can live up to last weeks impressive result.

Dagenham v Aldershot

Huge game for the Daggers here as 3 points will clinch them the title and automatic promotion to League 2. It will be a well deserved success as they've been highly consistent all season. They've mananged to keep the majority of the 1st team together all season with very few injuries or suspensions and again today they should be unchanged bar perhaps saunders coming in for leberl in mf. Aldershot meanwhile are enjoying a late run of form which has seen wildly speculative hopes among their fans that they will make the play offs. Can't really see this happening although they do boast a 100% record under caretaker manager Kuhl (only 3 games). He hasn't really changed the team since the departure of Brown so we wouldn't read too much into this form. However the 1x2 prices do look interesting as despite their emphatic lead over the other teams Dagenham are not that superior in team ability to sides such as Aldershot. It's tempting to take a chance that the home side will get stage fright on their big day and the Shots are available at an attractive 6.5 with several books.

Port Vale v Carlisle

Carlisle still have a sniff of the play offs but have a few injuries and suspensions to contend with here. Imp mf Thirlwell (26 apps) and reg df Aranalde (39 apps, 1 goal) are suspended and their key fw Hawley (30 apps, 12 goals) has been missing since mid February. he has been replace by Garner from Blackburn who has done okay. Their results of late have been good, unbeaten in 3 games, socring 7 goals in their last 2 without reply. Port Vale has no injury worries and may welcome back fw Rodgers who was brought in on loan from Crewe. Port Vale's form has been decent too of late and one could argue that they are fair value at -0.25 on the Asian Handicap, they do well at this level with limited resources and teams of this sort are normally under estimated by the general betting public.

Tuesday 3rd April

Burnley v Plymouth

Steve Cotterill must be worried, his Burnley team have now gone 18 games without a win. To add to that their current scoring record is abysmal with his team only scoring 4 goals in the last 15 games. That's unbelievably bad and they deserve to be heading towards relegation on that sort of form. If it wasn't for their miserly defence they would surely be in the bottom 3 already. Where has it all gone wrong? Well clearly the injury to Gray their key scorer didn't help but still it seems odd that a team which was doing pretty well has fallen so far. It seems that some among the Burnley support think the manager has lost the ability to solve this problem, the latest game against Luton was another excellent opportunity to break their run but they offered litte but huff and puff against very weak opponents. We lost a decent wedge on Plymouth on Saturday partly in thanks to a contentious refereeing decision which saw their centreback Doumbe sent off in the first minute. He will be suspended for this match meaning a reshuffle in the defence with probably Sawyer moving over from fullback. Burnley might stick with the same formation which saw Mcveigh introduced on the wing and Coughlan in the middle of the defence. It's hard to make a case for backing Burnley here, their confidence must be fragile at best and Plymouth aren't the sort of side to turn up just for the match fee. The Asian Handicap +0.25 around 1.9 for the away team looks like the value play. UPDATE - Norris still susp for Plymouth imp mf but Gosling fit again...a promising young player who should be an able replacement.

Rushden v Weymouth

Not really much riding on this game but it's certainly an interesting match from a betting perspective. The bookies have been running scared of Weymouth ever since the club shed it's entire 1st team due to financial problems. Each time the books have opened on a Weymouth game the market has moved heavily to oppose the south coast side. These moves haven't really been that successful with Weymouth pulling off the odd surprise result here and there. However the hammering that some punters had hoped for against the likes of Grays and Burton eventually materialised with a 7-0 walloping by Cambridge a relegation threatened side. So what to make of Weymouth? Well the facts seem that they are a lower midtable club who have a decent spirit but little quality now their best players have left. The one outstanding success in the "new" team is Stuart Beavon who has been regularly knocking in the goals. The rest of the side are largely solid and unspectacular although Matthews had been playing well in goal (pre the 7-0) They can't really afford to make widescale changes for this game as their squad now is a lot smaller but Tindall might try and freshen up a few players for obvious reasons. One miss is likely with Welsh returning to Yeovil. The winger had done quite well on his loan period so unless this is renewed it will be a loss upfront for them. Opponents Rushden are managed by Gary Hill, the very man dismissed by Weymouth in their cost-cutting exercise. It's unclear how friendly he is now with his old club but for sure he will know most of the Weymouth team well and their strengths and weaknesses. Another point to bear in mind is that Weymouth's defence is now old and slow - the likes of James, Challis, Vickers etc are past their best and the two young forwards of Rushden, Jackson and Rankine coud make hay here. Weymouth have conceded 15 goals in their last 6 aways....it will be interesting to see how the market moves on this one. UPDATE BBC reports Jackson and Rankine doubtful tonight - this is unsubstantiated at the moment. There are small moves towards Rushden on the markets.

Sunday 1st April

Birmingham v Coventry

Midlands derby here and they are invariably tight games. More so now as Coventry are enjoying a honeymoon period under new manager Dowie. He's often had initial success at his new clubs - who can forget Palace's fantastic rise from the bottom reaches of the Championship to promotion glory in the space of a few months in 2004. Since his arrival Coventry have W4 D2 L0 but significantly the bulk of those games have been at home where Coventry have always been reasonably strong. This should be a truer test of how robust Coventry's new found confidence really is. Birmingham are solid favourites to go up and with the depth of their squad they really should have no excuses. The addition of Andy Cole recently seems unnecessary but Bruce is clearly going all in here.... It would be a surprise if he was still around if Birmingham don't make it. Team news is of interest - Key winger Mcsheffrey is suspended for Brum, a big miss, there is also a doubt over N'Gotty in defence and fringe mf Gray is also banned. For Coventry reg cb Page remains out of the team and we don't expect many changes from the last team sheet. The forward partnership of Adebola and Mifsud seems well balanced and should cause some problems to Birmingham's defence which is a source of weakness that has been exploited by the better teams. This should be a good game and certainly no stroll for the home side. Their pitch is still a state which doesn't help them either - no surprise if Coventry grab some points here.

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