Premiership (Bet Advised 30th July 2007)
Pick Chelsea to Win the Title @ 2.63 Ladbrokes (3/10)
Now the bulk of the horsetrading has finished at most clubs we can make a more reasonable assessment of how things might pan out this season. There are two clear trends in the Premiership newly promoted clubs tend to struggle while the same four clubs dominate the top of the league. Will that change this year? Well the bookies clearly don't think so and looking at the bottom it's hard to argue that at least Derby look certain candidates for the drop. They have bought poorly - the signing of Earnshaw seems odd considering he has failed at this level already. Birmingham and Sunderland notionally have a stronger chance but even someone of Keane's stature is struggling to attract players to the Stadium of Light. We can't see either achieving anything other than survival this year. So who are the other relegation candidates? Wigan look a probable, we were impressed that they managed to get Jason Koumas but this was counterbalanced by the signing of Titus Bramble at the back which is frankly bizarre. They look a solid bet to struggle with an inexperienced manager. Fulham and Man City were looking possible until a raft of spending made things a bit less clear. City's signings in particular look good quality although they will have to adapt to English conditions. So it looks to be Derby, Wigan and another for the drop. Unfotunately with the odds available there seems no value on either of those teams.
At the top of the division, last years top 3 have signed plenty of players with Liverpool in particular making some eye-catching signings. Their clear problem last year was their away form with very few wins and only 18 goals scored. It was a season which took them backwards in the league and a lot will depend on Torres's ability to score goals. There seems little to choose between Man United and Chelsea, United have arguably been offensively stronger than their London counterparts for a couple of seasons but it was Chelsea's defence which let them down last year. This can be put down in large part to injuries to Terry and Cech and the departure of Gallas. It seems unlikely that they will have the same problems this year as they have nice cover in Ben Haim and their key defensive players are fit again. Arsenal seem to have gone backwards - the loss of Henry while not particularly important in playing terms (he was clearly past his Arsenal best) has sent the wrong signals to prospective players. His replacement Eduardo, is a typical Wenger signing, gifted technically but not really what they need. The Gunners have been crying out for an out and out finisher for some time and it seeems ironic that just up the Seven Sisters Rd lie 4 top quality strikers who could possibly have helped them out. We expect Spurs to really challenge their neigbours this year for a CL spot, for them it will just be a case of self-belief as their squad on paper is the equal of Arsenal. Can anyone else come out of the pack? Perhaps Portsmouth who have money backing and a solid home record but they will need to improve on their travels.
So the clear value pick at the top is clearly Chelsea @2.63 Ladbrokes. Even though Man U broke their aura of invincibility last season it does not mean they should be 2nd favourites this time around. As mentioned previously there were mitigating circumstances for last years failure and while Man U are strong they cannot be rated above Chelsea. The two teams are inseparable in our rankings and with Liverpool needing to take a big leap to make up the ground it seems sensible to take the Londoners. Betfair currently trades even longer @2.8+
Other bets of interest but at single books only (so we will exclude them from our official records) are Drogba to be Chelsea's top scorer @1.9 Bet 365 this looks nailed on barring injury and two goal scorer bets at Paddy Power - Bianchi to score 9 or more goals @2.1 and Lita to score 8 or more goals @ 1.83. Sven seems to be building a nice team at City and with the italian being his premier striker a decent haul can be expected. Lita should break through to be Reading's first choice striker this year he got 7 from 22 starts last season so one more appears very possible.
The Championship (Bet Advised 30th July 2007)
Charlton to Gain Promotion from the Championship @ 3.20 Stan James (5/10)
A standout price from SJ but we would also take the 3.0 at William Hill for a slightly smaller stake.
Big trend recently in the Championship for the relegated Premiership clubs to have an excellent chance of promotion at the first attempt. It's a sad state of affairs really but the parachute payments are making the Championship more and more like the Premiership in terms of the divide between the haves and the have nots. Charlton have spent wisely - Weaver, Todorov and Iwelumo are good buys at this level and the likes of Moutaouakil also come with a good pedigree. There are also rumours of more players on the way. Alan Pardew has already achieved promotion from this League and seems to have built up a good rapport within the team. There really aren't many negatives about Charlton and it would be a major surprise if they don't at least make the play off spots. Their pre-season form has been promising with most recently a 5-0 thumping of Gillingham. We give them considerably better than the 32% chance suggested by the odds and with the possibility of some big names to arrive still we recommend taking this bet now.
League Two (Bet Advised 31st July 2007)
Darlington to Gain Promotion from League Two @ 4.00 Various (3/10)
A fascinating season is in store for League Two, with quite a few teams investing heavily in their squads and will be expecting immediate returns. Before we concentrate closely on 2 of the 24 teams in the Division, honorable mention at a bigger price for Chester who changed manager and have brought in some useful looking signings. It's the acid test for Paul Ince at MK Dons where failure will be missing out on promotion. The relegated teams all should be in the shake up but our spotlight falls on two existing teams in this Division from last season.
Peterborough are universally favourites in the bookmakers lists and it is not hard to see why judging by the depth of talent in their squad, they will however need to improve considerably their 10th place finish last season. Darren Ferguson son of Sir Alex has a lot to live up to and since he took over they have certainly spent big on overhauling their squad. From non-league in came Aaron Mclean, George Boyd, Craig Mackail-Smith, Kieran Charnock, Rene Howe and Shwan Jalal, perhaps more importantly they secured Chris Westwood and Dean Keates from Walsall who won this League last season. Josh Low and Micah Hyde joined them last season from Championship teams, and they have picked up Charlie Lee from Tottenham who was on loan at Millwall last season, his signature was keenly sought by a few clubs. Worthy favourites and the team to beat but plenty short enough bettingwise in our opinion at this stage.
The best value option in the Division are Darlington. Attracting Dave Penney to manage them was a real coup last season however he could only lay the groundwork for this season. He won his first 6 games in charge, but then struck by injury and illness to the whole squad went on a terrible run. Once the transfer window opened Penney strengthened the defence with loan signings David Wheater and Ian Miller in particular and went on a 13 match unbeaten run. Once their loans finished defensive problems resurfaced and they tailed off to finish only 11th. In the close season Penney has been overhauling his squad, key signings in our opinion are Steve Foster who was Player of the Year for Scunthorpe and a legend for them last season when they won League One and Pawel Abbott whom they have signed from Swansea, he is a proven scorer at this level and should be money well spent. Other additions are Kevin McBride, Scott Wiseman, Andy Oakes, Rob Purdie, Neil Austin, Ian Harty and Penney has also brought Ian Miller on a 6 month loan. Of those McBride is interesting having played for both Motherwell and Celtic in the SPL, Austin has played at a higher level most of his career but suffered with injury last season.
Promotion prices for this Division tend to be shorter because of 4 places up for grabs, the 4.00 for Darlington available with Betfred, Stan James and Ladbrokes looks a worthy investment at this stage. A good manager proven at this level, an improving strong squad and money for further investment are very much the recipe for success.
© Football Fixed Odds 2000
W3C 4.01 HTML Validated
W3C CSS Validated
